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Here are some comments on EVs.

Lithium batteries are not inherently dangerous.  However, bad things happen if they are over-charged or over-discharged, so they require a well designed battery management system.  I mean, nearly every one carries a li-ion powered phone in our pocket all day long, and we don't really think about it.  Every office is filled with laptop batteries and the biggest issue you generally see is they swell up as they age.  

The problem comes when a products is poorly designed.  Remember all of those cheap hoverboards that went up in flames?  The government stepped in and made it illegal to import them unless they were UL tested and approved.   www.cpsc.gov/Global/Business-and-Manufac...ingScooterLetter.pdf

There are also other battery technologies that are less volatile.   Lithium ferro-phosphate  have less the capacity than Li-ion, but a longer cycle life and are safer.  Ni-MH batteries, like those standard rechargeable AA batteries we've had for decades, are used in some hybrids and they are even safer.  

As for the life expectancy of an EV, my own opinion is that very few of the cars made after 2020 will last 20 years.  Modern cars are packed full of computers.  Many many small embedded computers that control every part of the car.  Engine, transmission, windows and doors, "infotainment".  Those things are going to be very hard to maintain, and even harder to repair or replace.  All of the problems with Audis and VW electronics, failed abs controllers and unfixable check engine lights, seats that don't move and dark dashboards.  Those thing are just going to get worse.  They have cellular modems that enable fancy remote features.  Tesla does frequent over-the-air software updates to the car.  BMW announced a subscription model for the seat heaters.   All of those fancy services are going to be shut down over time.  I don't see any reason why anyone would expect any of these cars to last.

There are also many comments about how EVs are being forced on the US. I would argue that up to this point EV sales have been almost entire been driven by demand.  The Prius has been a success for many hears (yes, hybrid).  And Tesla has shown that some folks will pay big bucks for an EV.  Telsa sold 500k vehicles in 2020, and close to 2M vehicles total.  Sure, Honda sold 4.4M in 2020, so Tesla is still far behind, but still has plenty of demand.  And once Tesla demonstrated that there was a market for overpriced EVs, everyone jumped on the band wagon.  BMW, Nissan, GM, Ford (Mustang Mach-E is the worst name ever for a 4-door SUV).  All of those  EVs are in high demand.  Yes, the US has been subsiding EV purchases, but we subsidize all sorts of stuff, some good and some silly.  Welcome to democracy.

As for EVs not being ready, it's absolutely true that right now they don't work for a large number of car owners.  But technology is developed step by step.  As demand increases, investment in technology increases, and the products get better and better.  When GM released the EV1 in 1996, it had lead acid batteries.  But folk still loved it and got angry when GM crushed them all.

Oh, and for you conspiracy fans: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent_encumbrance...otive_NiMH_batteries

As far as mandating electric cars, the US has been pushing stricter automotive standards for 50 years.  California enacted the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate in 1990, requiring 10% of cars be zero emissions by 2003.  The actual requirements have shifted over the years, but the recent mandates are all part of this same effort.

And honestly, we've all benefited from this push for increased ICE efficiency.  Regulation forced big investments in engine technology.  Flow modeling, advanced combustion chamber design, direct injection, and a ton of other amazing tech.  While the primary focus was to make a really efficient 1.5L, that same technology has made it so a 2022 car with only 200HP is considered slow, while a 1995 car with 180 HP was a rocket.  Cars like the GR Corolla put out 300hp & 273 lbft from a 1.6L 3-cylinder!  And crazy folks at Dodge use that same tech to make 800HP Challengers.  In practical terms, that's about twice as much power as any 60s muscle car.  Nice!  

As for the supply of lithium, the hope is that once the EV market is large enough, there will be demand (profit) in recycling EV batteries and that this will reduce reliance on mining and eventually make a closed system.  Sure, that's speculation. But all long term forecasts are speculation.  There is clearly increasing demand for EVs, there is rapidly advancing technology due to large investments, including advancements in battery technology, and there are businesses lining up to support the EV industry.  Many many companies are betting on EVs because they believe it will be profitable.  Sure, the fact that the US government is supporting EV technology with both investments and regulation is part of the reason those companies believe EVs will be profitable.  But is this the US government forcing EVs on people, or is this the government investing in domestic technology innovation while also trying to improve air quality, reduce smog, reduce energy use, and reduce green house gas emissions.  Yes to all of those?

But just like the original CARB Zero emissions rules of 1990, the newly enacted EV targets are likely to shift over time based on available technology and the pace of development.  And as others have said, ICE vehicles will be with us for a long time.  But here we are in a world with less smog and cleaner air, 800hp V8s, and 326 HP Kawasaki motorcycles.  Seems like it's kind of working out ok.

 

wrote:

Here are some comments on EVs.

As for the supply of lithium, the hope is that once the EV market is large enough, there will be demand (profit) in recycling EV batteries and that this will reduce reliance on mining and eventually make a closed system.
 

Seeing how I’m leaning in on technology, at the same time totally against the mandates and subsidies, here’s a real question. If the lithium can be recycled and reused in a closed loop type usage. Why then do the lithium batteries go bad. If lithium is perpetually good what happens that the battery starts to loose capacity. I read once the pack will only charge to 80% they need to be replaced.

I'm not a chemist, but here is a decent answer.  

airqualitynews.com/2021/01/12/why-do-lit...Li%2Dion%20shuttling.

Mikaw post=874876If the lithium can be recycled and reused in a closed loop type usage. Why then do the lithium batteries go bad. If lithium is perpetually good what happens that the battery starts to loose capacity. I read once the pack will only charge to 80% they need to be replaced.

The lithium chemical is not consumed.  It's all still in the battery.  It looks like the capacity loss is due to degrading the electrodes inside the battery.  I have no idea if it's oxidation or corrosion or some other chemical process, or maybe just chemical contamination between the internal parts.  But the internal features seem to wear out, which causes a loss in capacity. 

It looks like the DOE has a research program to develop recycling technology, and one of the things they are hoping to develop is a process to replace the cathode (electrode) in the battery without completely reprocessing the lithium.  

The EPA link I included in my first post points to information from the DOE about recycling Li-Ion batteries.  This would also apply to the all of the Li-ion batteries in smart phones (over 2.2 billion iPhones have been sold), tables, computers, hoverboards, drones, and on and on.

www.anl.gov/article/doe-launches-its-fir...ing-rd-center-recell
www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-...tteries%200621_0.pdf

The 80% figure for automotive battery replacement is also mentioned in the NYTimes article I linked to.  I think this just comes down to how much performance loss the average consumer is willing to tolerate.  Especially given current EVs have a limited range even at 100% capacity. 

Many of the sources talking about battery recycling propose taking these automotive packs at 80% capacity and reusing them for grid storage or other bulk storage.  I'm skeptical of the economic viability of this idea.  As it stands, every battery pack is custom built to fit in a specific vehicle, and I'm guessing they are different not just for each brand but likely each model.  The pack itself would be a pain to use as it comes out of the car.  It's a goofy shape.  Each type has different voltage, capacity, battery management, cooling requirements, connectors, etc.  It seems like it would be really hard to integrate a bunch of random packs into one large storage system.  And removing the cells from the pack and repackaging them seems even harder.  The logistics and effort involved seems likely to be too expensive to be profitable for a long time.  However, if manufacturers could agree to standardize the pack, or have modular pieces inside the pack, this would make reuse simpler.  Of course, this modularity would likely increase the cost and wight and size, which would again make it less economically feasible.  But at this point,  battery reuse and recycling on a large scale is speculative and aspirational.  We want to develop technology for recycling and foster a profitable market so that we can support electrification of all sorts of things.  For example, batteries for grid storage could allow more efficient generation with fossil fuels, and make renewable sources more practical.  

www.ncsl.org/research/energy/energy-stor...-policy-options.aspx







 

Lets not discount the entirely likely possibility of massive leaps in battery tech and materials that comes along with the widespread adoption of EVs. 

Thank you. 

best option. Make all cars use a standardized battery pack. Somehow build vending machines (ala CarVana) that stores new, used and charges batteries. When your low on charge you pull in. That system checks that your battery performance is at an acceptable level. Your pay a fee similar to the cost of a tank of gas, pull in and a hands free mechanical process pulls your battery and installs a fully charged one. You leave and your old battery is stored and charged within the vending machine for the next user. This though would have to be done at a time frame similar to the filling time of an ICE vehicle. If your battery isn’t at an acceptable level your given 2 options. Buy a new charged one from said vending system. Or you pay to sit and wait for the vending machine to charge your batteries. If you choose to buy a new one your old one is stored and a service company collect them and rebuilds them. That service company is responsible for the environmentally friendly disposal of battery parts that can’t be reused. I’m gonna have to patten this idea. On October 1st 2022 I thought of it first. 

If government can mandate EVs, They should be able to mandate a standarized battery pack. There could be 3 sizes, just like grades of gas. Also, the battery pack could be composed of group of 12v, 50lb batteries, like pressent car batteries. The DYI guy could go to Auto Zone, get the number of batteries needed and replace the entire battery pack himself.
Of course I'm dreaming. This would drive down the cost of replacement batteries, and we might hurt ourselves. Better let the professionals do it.

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If government can mandate EVs, They should be able to mandate a standarized battery pack. There could be 3 sizes, just like grades of gas. Also, the battery pack could be composed of group of 12v, 50lb batteries, like pressent car batteries. The DYI guy could go to Auto Zone, get the number of batteries needed and replace the entire battery pack himself.
Of course I'm dreaming. This would drive down the cost of replacement batteries, and we might hurt ourselves. Better let the professionals do it.

Conventional battery tech is not suitable for EV, we had milk trucks in the 70's and 80's that were good for about 40 miles on a full charge of a dozen batteries, also to get to 480v you would need 40 x 50lb batteries (2000lbs) where would you put them ?

Here’s food for thought. If it’s been 192 years of evolution and we still can’t make a car for the masses but only for the affluent, my bet is we won’t have one ready in 2030/35 when these mandates are put into affect. I’d like to see it happen but I just don’t see it. 

Let demand and technology and the free market drive this. 

www.caranddriver.com/features/g15378765/...car-1830-to-present/

 

And while we’re dreaming might as well shoot for the moon. At 2.2 million I’ll take one in every color. LOL!

www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a37419682/2...rina-battista-drive/

Just another opinion. 
Steve
 

To answer your question Doctorot, yes, I have ridden a couple of electric motorcycles.  Want to hear about my experience?  Well, I'll tell you anyway.  One was an early production model Zero and the other was a just released Livewire.  The Zero did "0" for me and I'll leave it at that.  The Livewire was a bit different.  It looked pretty cool arriving at our training site and listened to the propaganda spiel, but when I went to ride it the darn thing wouldn't "start".  Start is a difficult word to use with this motorcycle so let's it wouldn't energize the motor to make it go.  There were more than a few red faces at this event when this happened and a factory mechanic had to come out to our location to see if it could be repaired.  Turns out there is a smaller, more normal looking motorcycle battery that is used to energize the start function of the real electric motor and main battery.  After several hours and many wasted attempts at charging the smaller battery a new one was brought out to our location from the factory.  Viola!  The new little battery energized the start function of the main battery and we were finally able to ride the bike  Obviously the big shots were making notes on this experience.

So a couple of us finally got to ride the Livewire and while it was fun in a way, it wasn't my cup of tea.  I hated the riding position which was like a monkey sitting on top of a football.  It was very fast from a standing start, much faster than I expected and with very little noise.  In fact the only thing I remember hearing was the wind.  I wasn't keeping track of time on the bike but after a few different riders I guess about 1.5 hours of moderate to hard riding passed and the main battery was almost exhausted and had to be recharged.  I walked around the Livewire while it was charging and asked myself if I could ever really purchase this +$20K motorcycle and be happy with it.  My answer was absolutely not.  I wouldn't give $5K for this thing.  It was unacceptable to me and I said so when asked.  We were told this bike could go for "about" 90 miles of spirited riding and it wasn't close to going that many miles.

That was several years ago and now Uncle Sam and the current administration wants to force EV's down everyone's throat, most of which are $60K and up and most can't go 300 to 400 miles without a recharge.  The were many times in my post retirement career when I drove 700 to 800 miles in a day.  So if I buy an EV I just extended my travel time by 100% or more, not to mention the added motel expenses and meals!!  Who the heck is kidding whom here??  It's so easy for the "Greenies" to say just buy EV and all will be good again, but of course most of them aren't traveling more than 20 miles to work.  In case you haven't heard, the latest rage for kids is to unplug EV's at the motels that have charging stations so when you come out to your car it isn't fully charged.  Yep great fun when you want to leave for that meeting you have to be at.

I went thru this whole rechargeable battery thing when I was a still a cop.  Rechargeable flashlights hit the market and we just had to have them.  They were big, heavy, expensive and maybe lasted about 30 mins before needing to be recharged.  After 25 years they finally got to the point of being affordable, lightweight and lasted a bit more than an hour and a half.  That still isn't very good if you are working an 8 to 12 hour night shift.  And I was lucky to get a year out of the rechargeable battery for my flashlight.  Multiply my experience on rechargeable battery life with all the other first responders working night shifts and figure out how many battery packs and sticks are being sold, used, worn out and trashed just to do it all over again.  It doesn't speak well to battery development in the long run.  In my opinion this whole EV thing is a scam being pushed on people to get away from fossil fuels.  The cure is worse than the initial problem only no one is telling you about it or you refuse to see it for what it is. 

Rick H.